內(nèi)戰(zhàn)科技
2023復(fù)習(xí)正是強(qiáng)化復(fù)習(xí)階段，在考研英語中占了40分，所以考研英語閱讀是英語科目中重要的一項(xiàng)。名師老師曾建議過考研生需要堅(jiān)持每天泛讀10-15分鐘的英文原刊。強(qiáng)烈推薦了雜志《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》.雜志中的文章也是考研英語的主要材料來源.希望考研考生認(rèn)真閱讀，快速提高考研英語閱讀水平。 The science of civil war 內(nèi)戰(zhàn)科技 What makes heroic strife 英勇斗爭(zhēng)緣何而致 Computer models that can predict the outbreakand spread of civil conflict are being developed 可以預(yù)測(cè)內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的爆發(fā)和蔓延的計(jì)算機(jī)模型正在被開發(fā)出來。 FOR the past decade or so, generals commanding the world s most advanced armies havebeen able to rely on accurate forecasts of the outcomes of conventional battles. 在過去的十年中，對(duì)世界上最先進(jìn)的軍隊(duì)的指揮依賴于對(duì)傳統(tǒng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)爆發(fā)的精確預(yù)測(cè)。 Given data on weather and terrain, and the combatants numbers, weaponry, positions,training and level of morale, computer programs such as the Tactical Numerical DeterministicModel, designed by the Dupuy Institute in Washington, DC, can predict who will win, howquickly and with how many casualties. 只要有關(guān)于氣候和土地的數(shù)據(jù)信息，敵人的數(shù)目，武器，位置，訓(xùn)練以及道德水平，計(jì)算機(jī)程序，比如華盛頓Dupuy研究所設(shè)計(jì)的戰(zhàn)術(shù)數(shù)值確定模型，可以預(yù)測(cè)哪一方會(huì)贏得戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，需要多少時(shí)間，以及會(huì)有多少人員傷亡。 Guerrilla warfare, however, is harder to model than open battle of this sort, and the civilinsurrection that often precedes it is harder still. 然而，游擊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)是很難模擬的，在此之前的暴動(dòng)也同樣難模擬， Which, from the generals point of view, is a pity, because such conflict is the dominantform of strife these days. 很不幸，從普遍觀點(diǎn)看來，最近一段時(shí)候這類戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)沖突占了大部分。 The reason for the difficulty is that the fuel of popular uprisings is not hardware, but socialfactors of a type that computer programmers find it difficult to capture in their algorithms. 預(yù)測(cè)困難的原因是激起暴動(dòng)的因素并非硬性條件，而是一種社會(huì)因素，而這種社會(huì)因素是計(jì)算機(jī)程序很難計(jì)算的。 Analysing the emotional temperature of postings on Facebook and Twitter, or thetelephone traffic between groups of villages, is always going to be a harder task thananalysing physics-based data like a tank s firing range or an army s stocks of ammunitionand fuel. 分析facebook和微博上更新的情緒，或是分析村落之間的電話往來，總是一項(xiàng)比分析實(shí)實(shí)在在的數(shù)據(jù)，比如說一臺(tái)坦克的射程或者一支軍隊(duì)的軍火和燃料儲(chǔ)備，要難得多的任務(wù)。 Harder, but not impossible. 很難，并不表示不可能。 For in the war-games rooms and think-tanks of the rich world s military powers, brightminds are working on the problem of how to model insurrection and irregular warfare. 對(duì)于富人世界的軍事力量的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)模擬室和智囊團(tuán)而言，正有智慧的大腦在解決這些問題，如何模擬暴動(dòng)和非常規(guī)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。 Slowly but surely they are succeeding, and in the process they are helping politicians andarmies to a better understanding of the nature of rebellion. 雖然很緩慢，但是可以確認(rèn)他們正走向成功。在此過程中，他們幫助政治家們和軍隊(duì)更好地理解叛亂的本質(zhì)。 SCARE tactics SCARE戰(zhàn)術(shù) One of the best-known projects in this field is SCARE, the Spatio-Cultural Abductive ReasoningEngine, developed at the United States Military Academy at West Point by a team led byMajor Paulo Shakarian, a computer-scientist-turned-soldier. 本領(lǐng)域中最有名的項(xiàng)目之一是SCARE，全稱為空間文化推導(dǎo)儀，是由設(shè)立在西點(diǎn)軍校的美國(guó)軍事科學(xué)院的Paulo Shakarian少校所領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的團(tuán)隊(duì)開發(fā)的。 SCARE operates at the most militarily conventional end of the irregular-conflictspectrum: the point where an army of guerrillas is already in being and is making life hardfor a notionally better-armed army of regular troops. Paulo Shakarian少校是一名軍事計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)家。SCARE在非常規(guī)的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)沖突中軍事圖譜上看來傳統(tǒng)的結(jié)束時(shí)分運(yùn)作，即游擊隊(duì)已經(jīng)到來，讓我們觀念中裝備精良的正規(guī)軍陷入困境之時(shí)運(yùn)作。 That, of course, has been the experience of American forces in Vietnam, Iraq andAfghanistan. 顯然，那就是美軍在越南，伊拉克和阿富汗的經(jīng)歷。 Major Shakarian and his team have analysed the behaviour of guerrillas in both Iraq andAfghanistan, and think they understand it well enough to build reliable models. Shakarian少校和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)分析了伊拉克和阿富汗游擊隊(duì)的行為方式，并且認(rèn)為他們已經(jīng)足夠了解他們的行為方式，可以建立可靠的模型。 Their crucial insight is the local nature of conflict in these countries. 至關(guān)重要的是，他們深刻洞察了這些國(guó)家沖突的地區(qū)本質(zhì)特性。 In particular, bombs directed at occupying forces are generally planted close to the placewhere they were made, and on the territory of the bombmaker s tribal kin or co-religionists. 特別地來說，占領(lǐng)軍的炸彈通常安裝在離制造地很近的地方，就在炸彈制造者族親或同教派人員的地盤上。 That is not a surprise, of course. Kin and co-religionists are the most reliable allies in warswhere different guerrilla groups may not always see eye to eye about objectives, beyond theimmediate one of driving out foreign troops. 這當(dāng)然不足為奇。親屬和同教派是不同游擊隊(duì)出沒的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中最為可靠的同盟。這些游擊隊(duì)除了立刻趕走外國(guó)軍隊(duì)以外，可能無法總是有統(tǒng)一的目標(biāo)。 But it does give Major Shakarian and his team a convenient way in. 這給了Shakarian少校和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)一個(gè)方便的切入口。 Using the co-ordinates of previously bombed sites, data from topographical and streetmaps, and information on an area s ethnic, linguistic and confessional human terrain,SCARE is able to predict where guerrillas munition dumps will be to within about 700metres. 利用以前的炸彈安裝地的坐標(biāo)，來自地理和街道地圖的信息數(shù)據(jù)，以及當(dāng)?shù)孛褡宓男畔?，語言，和人類地域的自白，SCARE能夠在大約700米內(nèi)預(yù)測(cè)出游擊隊(duì)的軍需存放處。 That is not perfect, but it is close enough to be able to focus a search in a useful way. 那并非完美，但是已經(jīng)足夠接近有效地集中搜索了。 Moreover, SCARE s focus should soon become more precise. 此外， SCARE的焦點(diǎn)很快會(huì)更加精準(zhǔn)。 Major Shakarian s latest trick is to include data on phone-traffic patterns in the calculations. Shakarian少校最新的計(jì)劃將包括計(jì)算電話通路的模式。 An upgraded version of the program, employing this trick, will be created next month. 本計(jì)劃的升級(jí)版將會(huì)使用這項(xiàng)策略，未來的幾個(gè)月就將實(shí)現(xiàn)。 All of which is useful for dealing with a conflict once it has started. 一旦開始，所有的這一切都有利于處理沖突。 But it is better, if possible, to see what may happen before things get going. 然而，如果可能的話，最好看到在事情繼續(xù)以前，有什么可能會(huì)發(fā)生。 And for that, America s navy has a project called RiftLand. 為此，美國(guó)海軍，有一個(gè)項(xiàng)目名為分裂的土地。 RiftLand is being developed on the navy s behalf by Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, a professor ofcomputational social science at George Mason University in Virginia. 分裂的土地是由維吉尼亞的喬治梅森大學(xué)的計(jì)算社會(huì)科學(xué)教授Claudio Cioffi-Revilla為代表開發(fā)的。 It is specific to the part of East Africa around the Great Rift Valley. 它尤其針對(duì)東非地區(qū)大裂谷一帶。這也是它名稱的由來。 That this area includes Congo, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia and Uganda, each of which hasbeen the scene of present or recent civil strife, is no coincidence. 這一地區(qū)包括剛果，埃塞俄比亞，路萬達(dá)，索馬里，和烏干達(dá)，每一個(gè)國(guó)家目前或者最近都經(jīng)歷了內(nèi)戰(zhàn)，這并非偶然。 But the ideas involved could be generalised to other parts of the world, with due alteration forlocal conditions. 然而，這個(gè)說法經(jīng)過根據(jù)當(dāng)?shù)貤l件的少許變動(dòng)，也可以推及世界其他地區(qū)， Broadly, RiftLand works by chewing its way through a range of data collected by charities,academics and government agencies, and uses these to predict where groups of people willgo and with whom they may clash in times of drought or armed conflict. 廣義上來說，分裂的土地通過精細(xì)分析由慈善組織，學(xué)術(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)和政府收集來的數(shù)據(jù)，由此來預(yù)測(cè)哪一伙人會(huì)行動(dòng)，又會(huì)跟誰發(fā)生武裝沖突。 Dr Cioffi-Revilla gives the example of a tribe of nomadic herders known for sharing itsnotions of veterinary medicine with others. Cioffi-Revilla博士以一個(gè)對(duì)外出口獸醫(yī)藥品的游牧部落舉了一個(gè)例子。 This tribe, the model predicts, will reckon it safer to cross the lands of groups who also relyon keeping their animals healthy. 模型預(yù)測(cè)，這個(gè)部落將會(huì)估計(jì)它將安全地穿過那些依賴于動(dòng)物健康的群落的土地， Another point is that tribes who own a radio or mobile phone will steer clear of roads afternews reports of government atrocities against their kin. 另外一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)是那些擁有收音機(jī)或者手機(jī)的群落在資訊中說政府對(duì)他們的親屬施暴以后會(huì)避開大路。 A third is that much of the movement of herdsmen can be predicted from satellite data onthe condition of pasture lands, modified by knowledge of what Dr Cioffi-Revilla calls thecomplex network of IOUs between tribes: which are currently hostile to one another, andwho owes whom favours. 還有一個(gè)是牧者們的行動(dòng)可以由衛(wèi)星根據(jù)草原的狀況預(yù)測(cè)出來，再加上這些部落之間Cioffi-Revilla博士稱之為復(fù)雜的借貸關(guān)系網(wǎng)的觀點(diǎn)。他們，目前彼此敵對(duì)，也彼此相欠。 Hostile sentiments 敵對(duì)情緒 The sort of conflict dealt with by RiftLanda war of all against all in countries where centralgovernment is light or non-existenthas been particularly characteristic of this part ofAfrica in recent years. 這類由分裂的土地處理的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)沖突，也是在那些中央政府弱勢(shì)或者無政府的國(guó)家出現(xiàn)的一種混戰(zhàn)，已經(jīng)成為非洲這一局部地區(qū)近年來戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的特點(diǎn)。 Further north, where states are stronger, urban insurrection of the sort seen at the beginningof the Arab spring is a more common threat. 再往北，那些國(guó)家政府相對(duì)強(qiáng)勢(shì)，這種城鎮(zhèn)叛亂在阿拉伯的春天之初是比較常見的威脅。 Politicians faced with such uprisings may thus be interested in yet another piece of software,known as Condor, which has been developed by Peter Gloor of the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology. 政治家們面臨著，這些暴亂勢(shì)力可能對(duì)另一個(gè)軟件叫做禿鷹感興趣。它是由麻省理工的Peter Gloor開發(fā)的。 Dr Gloor is certainly not in the business of saving the jobs of Middle-Eastern dictators. He isactually a consultant to the Christian Democratic Union, Germany s largest political party. Gloor博士絕不是要為中東的獨(dú)裁者們保住工作。事實(shí)上他是德國(guó)最大政黨基督教民主聯(lián)盟的顧問。 But all politicians in power, whether democrats or dictators, share a distaste fordemonstrations and protests on the streets. 不過所有當(dāng)權(quán)的政治家們，無論是民主主義者還是獨(dú)裁者，都不會(huì)喜歡大街上的示威抗議活動(dòng)。 Condor works by sifting through data from Twitter, Facebook and other social media, andusing them to predict how a public protest will evolve. 禿鷹篩選來自微博，facebook和其他社會(huì)媒體的數(shù)據(jù)信息，利用他們預(yù)測(cè)公眾抗議將如何發(fā)展。 It does so by performing what Dr Gloor calls sentiment analysis on the data. 禿鷹是通過對(duì)信息進(jìn)行Gloor博士所說的情緒分析做到這一點(diǎn)的。 Sentiment analysis first classifies protesters by their clout. 情緒分析首先將抗議者們根據(jù)他們的影響力分類， An influential Twitter user, for instance, is one who has many followers but follows fewpeople himself. 比如說，一位具有影響力的微博用戶擁有很多粉絲，但是他自己卻只關(guān)注極少數(shù)人。他的發(fā)言往往是歡快的，包含著太好了，真有趣，太有趣了，真開心，有趣的電影，你會(huì)喜歡的等等諸如此類的詞語或短語。 His tweets are typically upbeat, are rapidly retweeted, and appear to sway others. 這些微博很快會(huì)贏得回復(fù)，明顯影響其他人。 In a nod to the methods developed by Google, Dr Gloor refers to this process as PageRankingfor people. 為了和谷歌開發(fā)的技術(shù)相匹配，Gloor博士將這一過程稱為人物網(wǎng)頁等級(jí)搜索。 Having thus ranked protesters, Condor then follows those at the top of the list to see howtheir output changes. 有了這些分級(jí)的抗議者，禿鷹接下來會(huì)關(guān)注表單上排位最高的幾位，看他們的發(fā)言如何變化。 Dr Gloor has found that, in Western countries at least, non-violent protest movementsbegin to burn out when the upbeat tweets turn negative, with not, never, lame, I hate, idiotand so on becoming more frequent. Gloor博士發(fā)現(xiàn)，至少在西方國(guó)家，當(dāng)歡快的發(fā)言變得消極， 不，從不，蹩腳的，我討厭，傻瓜等頻繁出現(xiàn)的時(shí)候，非暴力的抗議行動(dòng)就開始爆發(fā)了。 Abundant complaints about idiots in the government or in an ideologically opposed group area good signal of a movement s decline. 大量對(duì)政府的傻瓜們或者假想敵團(tuán)體的抱怨的出現(xiàn)都是行動(dòng)落幕的標(biāo)志。 Complaints about idiots in one s own movement or such infelicities as the theft of beer by afellow demonstrator suggest the whole thing is almost over. 對(duì)自身行動(dòng)中傻瓜們的抱怨或者其他示威者遭遇的偷竊啤酒的不幸標(biāo)志著整個(gè)事情幾乎快結(jié)束了。 Condor, then, is good at forecasting the course of existing protests. 然后禿鷹擅長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)剩下的抗議者的行動(dòng)。 Even better, from the politicians point of view, would be to predict such protests before theyoccur. Not surprisingly, several groups of researchers are trying to do this too. 從政治家的觀點(diǎn)看來，最好能在抗議活動(dòng)爆發(fā)之前就能做出預(yù)測(cè)。不足為奇，有很多研究小組也在嘗試這么做。 Aptima, a firm based in Woburn, Massachusetts, is one. Aptima，在馬薩諸塞州沃本市的一家公司就是其中之一。 Its program, called E-MEME uses sentiment analysis to see how opinions and states of mindflow across entire populations, not just activists. 它的項(xiàng)目叫做E-MEME利用情緒分析法來看觀點(diǎn)和說明是如何再人群中蔓延的，而不僅僅是在活躍分子中。 It employs data from online news sources, blogs and Twitter, and attempts to rank thesusceptibility of certain parts of the populace to specific ideas. 它利用來自在線資訊，博客，微博的信息數(shù)據(jù)，嘗試將這一部分民眾對(duì)特殊觀點(diǎn)的敏感度進(jìn)行排位。 According to Robert McCormack, the project s chief technologist, E-MEME can determinethings as different as which places in Egypt contain people who will care a lot about a borderincident with Israel, and which parts of a country most need water in times of drought. 據(jù)本項(xiàng)目的主要技術(shù)負(fù)責(zé)人Robert McCormack所說，E-MEME能夠判定埃及哪些地方的某一群人對(duì)和以色列邊境沖突比較關(guān)心，哪些地方在干旱時(shí)特別需要水，這些不同之處。
2023復(fù)習(xí)正是強(qiáng)化復(fù)習(xí)階段，在考研英語中占了40分，所以考研英語閱讀是英語科目中重要的一項(xiàng)。名師老師曾建議過考研生需要堅(jiān)持每天泛讀10-15分鐘的英文原刊。強(qiáng)烈推薦了雜志《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》.雜志中的文章也是考研英語的主要材料來源.希望考研考生認(rèn)真閱讀，快速提高考研英語閱讀水平。 The science of civil war 內(nèi)戰(zhàn)科技 What makes heroic strife 英勇斗爭(zhēng)緣何而致 Computer models that can predict the outbreakand spread of civil conflict are being developed 可以預(yù)測(cè)內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的爆發(fā)和蔓延的計(jì)算機(jī)模型正在被開發(fā)出來。 FOR the past decade or so, generals commanding the world s most advanced armies havebeen able to rely on accurate forecasts of the outcomes of conventional battles. 在過去的十年中，對(duì)世界上最先進(jìn)的軍隊(duì)的指揮依賴于對(duì)傳統(tǒng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)爆發(fā)的精確預(yù)測(cè)。 Given data on weather and terrain, and the combatants numbers, weaponry, positions,training and level of morale, computer programs such as the Tactical Numerical DeterministicModel, designed by the Dupuy Institute in Washington, DC, can predict who will win, howquickly and with how many casualties. 只要有關(guān)于氣候和土地的數(shù)據(jù)信息，敵人的數(shù)目，武器，位置，訓(xùn)練以及道德水平，計(jì)算機(jī)程序，比如華盛頓Dupuy研究所設(shè)計(jì)的戰(zhàn)術(shù)數(shù)值確定模型，可以預(yù)測(cè)哪一方會(huì)贏得戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，需要多少時(shí)間，以及會(huì)有多少人員傷亡。 Guerrilla warfare, however, is harder to model than open battle of this sort, and the civilinsurrection that often precedes it is harder still. 然而，游擊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)是很難模擬的，在此之前的暴動(dòng)也同樣難模擬， Which, from the generals point of view, is a pity, because such conflict is the dominantform of strife these days. 很不幸，從普遍觀點(diǎn)看來，最近一段時(shí)候這類戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)沖突占了大部分。 The reason for the difficulty is that the fuel of popular uprisings is not hardware, but socialfactors of a type that computer programmers find it difficult to capture in their algorithms. 預(yù)測(cè)困難的原因是激起暴動(dòng)的因素并非硬性條件，而是一種社會(huì)因素，而這種社會(huì)因素是計(jì)算機(jī)程序很難計(jì)算的。 Analysing the emotional temperature of postings on Facebook and Twitter, or thetelephone traffic between groups of villages, is always going to be a harder task thananalysing physics-based data like a tank s firing range or an army s stocks of ammunitionand fuel. 分析facebook和微博上更新的情緒，或是分析村落之間的電話往來，總是一項(xiàng)比分析實(shí)實(shí)在在的數(shù)據(jù)，比如說一臺(tái)坦克的射程或者一支軍隊(duì)的軍火和燃料儲(chǔ)備，要難得多的任務(wù)。 Harder, but not impossible. 很難，并不表示不可能。 For in the war-games rooms and think-tanks of the rich world s military powers, brightminds are working on the problem of how to model insurrection and irregular warfare. 對(duì)于富人世界的軍事力量的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)模擬室和智囊團(tuán)而言，正有智慧的大腦在解決這些問題，如何模擬暴動(dòng)和非常規(guī)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。 Slowly but surely they are succeeding, and in the process they are helping politicians andarmies to a better understanding of the nature of rebellion. 雖然很緩慢，但是可以確認(rèn)他們正走向成功。在此過程中，他們幫助政治家們和軍隊(duì)更好地理解叛亂的本質(zhì)。 SCARE tactics SCARE戰(zhàn)術(shù) One of the best-known projects in this field is SCARE, the Spatio-Cultural Abductive ReasoningEngine, developed at the United States Military Academy at West Point by a team led byMajor Paulo Shakarian, a computer-scientist-turned-soldier. 本領(lǐng)域中最有名的項(xiàng)目之一是SCARE，全稱為空間文化推導(dǎo)儀，是由設(shè)立在西點(diǎn)軍校的美國(guó)軍事科學(xué)院的Paulo Shakarian少校所領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的團(tuán)隊(duì)開發(fā)的。 SCARE operates at the most militarily conventional end of the irregular-conflictspectrum: the point where an army of guerrillas is already in being and is making life hardfor a notionally better-armed army of regular troops. Paulo Shakarian少校是一名軍事計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)家。SCARE在非常規(guī)的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)沖突中軍事圖譜上看來傳統(tǒng)的結(jié)束時(shí)分運(yùn)作，即游擊隊(duì)已經(jīng)到來，讓我們觀念中裝備精良的正規(guī)軍陷入困境之時(shí)運(yùn)作。 That, of course, has been the experience of American forces in Vietnam, Iraq andAfghanistan. 顯然，那就是美軍在越南，伊拉克和阿富汗的經(jīng)歷。 Major Shakarian and his team have analysed the behaviour of guerrillas in both Iraq andAfghanistan, and think they understand it well enough to build reliable models. Shakarian少校和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)分析了伊拉克和阿富汗游擊隊(duì)的行為方式，并且認(rèn)為他們已經(jīng)足夠了解他們的行為方式，可以建立可靠的模型。 Their crucial insight is the local nature of conflict in these countries. 至關(guān)重要的是，他們深刻洞察了這些國(guó)家沖突的地區(qū)本質(zhì)特性。 In particular, bombs directed at occupying forces are generally planted close to the placewhere they were made, and on the territory of the bombmaker s tribal kin or co-religionists. 特別地來說，占領(lǐng)軍的炸彈通常安裝在離制造地很近的地方，就在炸彈制造者族親或同教派人員的地盤上。 That is not a surprise, of course. Kin and co-religionists are the most reliable allies in warswhere different guerrilla groups may not always see eye to eye about objectives, beyond theimmediate one of driving out foreign troops. 這當(dāng)然不足為奇。親屬和同教派是不同游擊隊(duì)出沒的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中最為可靠的同盟。這些游擊隊(duì)除了立刻趕走外國(guó)軍隊(duì)以外，可能無法總是有統(tǒng)一的目標(biāo)。 But it does give Major Shakarian and his team a convenient way in. 這給了Shakarian少校和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)一個(gè)方便的切入口。 Using the co-ordinates of previously bombed sites, data from topographical and streetmaps, and information on an area s ethnic, linguistic and confessional human terrain,SCARE is able to predict where guerrillas munition dumps will be to within about 700metres. 利用以前的炸彈安裝地的坐標(biāo)，來自地理和街道地圖的信息數(shù)據(jù)，以及當(dāng)?shù)孛褡宓男畔?，語言，和人類地域的自白，SCARE能夠在大約700米內(nèi)預(yù)測(cè)出游擊隊(duì)的軍需存放處。 That is not perfect, but it is close enough to be able to focus a search in a useful way. 那并非完美，但是已經(jīng)足夠接近有效地集中搜索了。 Moreover, SCARE s focus should soon become more precise. 此外， SCARE的焦點(diǎn)很快會(huì)更加精準(zhǔn)。 Major Shakarian s latest trick is to include data on phone-traffic patterns in the calculations. Shakarian少校最新的計(jì)劃將包括計(jì)算電話通路的模式。 An upgraded version of the program, employing this trick, will be created next month. 本計(jì)劃的升級(jí)版將會(huì)使用這項(xiàng)策略，未來的幾個(gè)月就將實(shí)現(xiàn)。 All of which is useful for dealing with a conflict once it has started. 一旦開始，所有的這一切都有利于處理沖突。 But it is better, if possible, to see what may happen before things get going. 然而，如果可能的話，最好看到在事情繼續(xù)以前，有什么可能會(huì)發(fā)生。 And for that, America s navy has a project called RiftLand. 為此，美國(guó)海軍，有一個(gè)項(xiàng)目名為分裂的土地。 RiftLand is being developed on the navy s behalf by Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, a professor ofcomputational social science at George Mason University in Virginia. 分裂的土地是由維吉尼亞的喬治梅森大學(xué)的計(jì)算社會(huì)科學(xué)教授Claudio Cioffi-Revilla為代表開發(fā)的。 It is specific to the part of East Africa around the Great Rift Valley. 它尤其針對(duì)東非地區(qū)大裂谷一帶。這也是它名稱的由來。 That this area includes Congo, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia and Uganda, each of which hasbeen the scene of present or recent civil strife, is no coincidence. 這一地區(qū)包括剛果，埃塞俄比亞，路萬達(dá)，索馬里，和烏干達(dá)，每一個(gè)國(guó)家目前或者最近都經(jīng)歷了內(nèi)戰(zhàn)，這并非偶然。 But the ideas involved could be generalised to other parts of the world, with due alteration forlocal conditions. 然而，這個(gè)說法經(jīng)過根據(jù)當(dāng)?shù)貤l件的少許變動(dòng)，也可以推及世界其他地區(qū)， Broadly, RiftLand works by chewing its way through a range of data collected by charities,academics and government agencies, and uses these to predict where groups of people willgo and with whom they may clash in times of drought or armed conflict. 廣義上來說，分裂的土地通過精細(xì)分析由慈善組織，學(xué)術(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)和政府收集來的數(shù)據(jù)，由此來預(yù)測(cè)哪一伙人會(huì)行動(dòng)，又會(huì)跟誰發(fā)生武裝沖突。 Dr Cioffi-Revilla gives the example of a tribe of nomadic herders known for sharing itsnotions of veterinary medicine with others. Cioffi-Revilla博士以一個(gè)對(duì)外出口獸醫(yī)藥品的游牧部落舉了一個(gè)例子。 This tribe, the model predicts, will reckon it safer to cross the lands of groups who also relyon keeping their animals healthy. 模型預(yù)測(cè)，這個(gè)部落將會(huì)估計(jì)它將安全地穿過那些依賴于動(dòng)物健康的群落的土地， Another point is that tribes who own a radio or mobile phone will steer clear of roads afternews reports of government atrocities against their kin. 另外一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)是那些擁有收音機(jī)或者手機(jī)的群落在資訊中說政府對(duì)他們的親屬施暴以后會(huì)避開大路。 A third is that much of the movement of herdsmen can be predicted from satellite data onthe condition of pasture lands, modified by knowledge of what Dr Cioffi-Revilla calls thecomplex network of IOUs between tribes: which are currently hostile to one another, andwho owes whom favours. 還有一個(gè)是牧者們的行動(dòng)可以由衛(wèi)星根據(jù)草原的狀況預(yù)測(cè)出來，再加上這些部落之間Cioffi-Revilla博士稱之為復(fù)雜的借貸關(guān)系網(wǎng)的觀點(diǎn)。他們，目前彼此敵對(duì)，也彼此相欠。 Hostile sentiments 敵對(duì)情緒 The sort of conflict dealt with by RiftLanda war of all against all in countries where centralgovernment is light or non-existenthas been particularly characteristic of this part ofAfrica in recent years. 這類由分裂的土地處理的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)沖突，也是在那些中央政府弱勢(shì)或者無政府的國(guó)家出現(xiàn)的一種混戰(zhàn)，已經(jīng)成為非洲這一局部地區(qū)近年來戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的特點(diǎn)。 Further north, where states are stronger, urban insurrection of the sort seen at the beginningof the Arab spring is a more common threat. 再往北，那些國(guó)家政府相對(duì)強(qiáng)勢(shì)，這種城鎮(zhèn)叛亂在阿拉伯的春天之初是比較常見的威脅。 Politicians faced with such uprisings may thus be interested in yet another piece of software,known as Condor, which has been developed by Peter Gloor of the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology. 政治家們面臨著，這些暴亂勢(shì)力可能對(duì)另一個(gè)軟件叫做禿鷹感興趣。它是由麻省理工的Peter Gloor開發(fā)的。 Dr Gloor is certainly not in the business of saving the jobs of Middle-Eastern dictators. He isactually a consultant to the Christian Democratic Union, Germany s largest political party. Gloor博士絕不是要為中東的獨(dú)裁者們保住工作。事實(shí)上他是德國(guó)最大政黨基督教民主聯(lián)盟的顧問。 But all politicians in power, whether democrats or dictators, share a distaste fordemonstrations and protests on the streets. 不過所有當(dāng)權(quán)的政治家們，無論是民主主義者還是獨(dú)裁者，都不會(huì)喜歡大街上的示威抗議活動(dòng)。 Condor works by sifting through data from Twitter, Facebook and other social media, andusing them to predict how a public protest will evolve. 禿鷹篩選來自微博，facebook和其他社會(huì)媒體的數(shù)據(jù)信息，利用他們預(yù)測(cè)公眾抗議將如何發(fā)展。 It does so by performing what Dr Gloor calls sentiment analysis on the data. 禿鷹是通過對(duì)信息進(jìn)行Gloor博士所說的情緒分析做到這一點(diǎn)的。 Sentiment analysis first classifies protesters by their clout. 情緒分析首先將抗議者們根據(jù)他們的影響力分類， An influential Twitter user, for instance, is one who has many followers but follows fewpeople himself. 比如說，一位具有影響力的微博用戶擁有很多粉絲，但是他自己卻只關(guān)注極少數(shù)人。他的發(fā)言往往是歡快的，包含著太好了，真有趣，太有趣了，真開心，有趣的電影，你會(huì)喜歡的等等諸如此類的詞語或短語。 His tweets are typically upbeat, are rapidly retweeted, and appear to sway others. 這些微博很快會(huì)贏得回復(fù)，明顯影響其他人。 In a nod to the methods developed by Google, Dr Gloor refers to this process as PageRankingfor people. 為了和谷歌開發(fā)的技術(shù)相匹配，Gloor博士將這一過程稱為人物網(wǎng)頁等級(jí)搜索。 Having thus ranked protesters, Condor then follows those at the top of the list to see howtheir output changes. 有了這些分級(jí)的抗議者，禿鷹接下來會(huì)關(guān)注表單上排位最高的幾位，看他們的發(fā)言如何變化。 Dr Gloor has found that, in Western countries at least, non-violent protest movementsbegin to burn out when the upbeat tweets turn negative, with not, never, lame, I hate, idiotand so on becoming more frequent. Gloor博士發(fā)現(xiàn)，至少在西方國(guó)家，當(dāng)歡快的發(fā)言變得消極， 不，從不，蹩腳的，我討厭，傻瓜等頻繁出現(xiàn)的時(shí)候，非暴力的抗議行動(dòng)就開始爆發(fā)了。 Abundant complaints about idiots in the government or in an ideologically opposed group area good signal of a movement s decline. 大量對(duì)政府的傻瓜們或者假想敵團(tuán)體的抱怨的出現(xiàn)都是行動(dòng)落幕的標(biāo)志。 Complaints about idiots in one s own movement or such infelicities as the theft of beer by afellow demonstrator suggest the whole thing is almost over. 對(duì)自身行動(dòng)中傻瓜們的抱怨或者其他示威者遭遇的偷竊啤酒的不幸標(biāo)志著整個(gè)事情幾乎快結(jié)束了。 Condor, then, is good at forecasting the course of existing protests. 然后禿鷹擅長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)剩下的抗議者的行動(dòng)。 Even better, from the politicians point of view, would be to predict such protests before theyoccur. Not surprisingly, several groups of researchers are trying to do this too. 從政治家的觀點(diǎn)看來，最好能在抗議活動(dòng)爆發(fā)之前就能做出預(yù)測(cè)。不足為奇，有很多研究小組也在嘗試這么做。 Aptima, a firm based in Woburn, Massachusetts, is one. Aptima，在馬薩諸塞州沃本市的一家公司就是其中之一。 Its program, called E-MEME uses sentiment analysis to see how opinions and states of mindflow across entire populations, not just activists. 它的項(xiàng)目叫做E-MEME利用情緒分析法來看觀點(diǎn)和說明是如何再人群中蔓延的，而不僅僅是在活躍分子中。 It employs data from online news sources, blogs and Twitter, and attempts to rank thesusceptibility of certain parts of the populace to specific ideas. 它利用來自在線資訊，博客，微博的信息數(shù)據(jù)，嘗試將這一部分民眾對(duì)特殊觀點(diǎn)的敏感度進(jìn)行排位。 According to Robert McCormack, the project s chief technologist, E-MEME can determinethings as different as which places in Egypt contain people who will care a lot about a borderincident with Israel, and which parts of a country most need water in times of drought. 據(jù)本項(xiàng)目的主要技術(shù)負(fù)責(zé)人Robert McCormack所說，E-MEME能夠判定埃及哪些地方的某一群人對(duì)和以色列邊境沖突比較關(guān)心，哪些地方在干旱時(shí)特別需要水，這些不同之處。
