俄羅斯難以擺脫中國放緩影響
Russians shrug at the thought of a 3 per cent currency devaluation, such as the renminbiexperienced last week. After all, the rouble experiences similar swings almost daily.
人民幣上周走低3%。對于這種幅度的貶值，俄羅斯人只會聳聳肩。畢竟，盧布幾乎天天經(jīng)歷這樣的波動。
But as Russia puts ever greater weight on its ties with China as part of President VladimirPutin’s strategy of “pivoting to Asia, the slowdown in the Chinese economy is not so easy toshrug off.
但是，隨著俄羅斯按照弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)總統(tǒng)“轉(zhuǎn)向亞洲的戰(zhàn)略，越來越注重其與中國的關(guān)系，中國經(jīng)濟放緩并不是靠聳聳肩就能輕松拋在腦后的。
Russia this month reported that its recession deepened in the second quarter, with theeconomy contracting 4.6 per cent year on year.
俄羅斯本月報告第二季度經(jīng)濟衰退加劇，經(jīng)濟同比收縮4.6%。
China is Russia’s single largest trade partner, accounting for $30.6bn of imports and exportsin the first half of the year. That figure represents a 28.7 per cent fall from a year earlier,according to Russian customs data. However, Russia’s trade with China has declined less thanwith other countries, meaning that China has increased its share of Russia’s trade from 10.8per cent to 11.4 per cent.
中國是俄羅斯最大的貿(mào)易伙伴，上半年雙邊進出口總額達到306億美元。根據(jù)俄羅斯海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，這個數(shù)字代表著28.7%的同比跌幅。然而，俄羅斯對華貿(mào)易的降幅小于該國對其他國家貿(mào)易的降幅，這意味著中國在俄羅斯對外貿(mào)易中的占比從10.8%提高至11.4%。
Oleg Kouzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, says the sheer size of China’seconomy means the country will continue to represent an opportunity for Russia, even in anenvironment of slower growth. “In physical amounts, the volumes of their exports is stillconsiderable. They’re still buying a lot from Russia, he says.
莫斯科晉新資本(Renaissance Capital)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家奧列格柯茲敏(Oleg Kouzmin)表示，中國經(jīng)濟的龐大規(guī)模意味著，其對俄羅斯而言將繼續(xù)代表著一個機遇，即便在經(jīng)濟增長放緩的環(huán)境也是如此。“就絕對數(shù)量而言，他們的出口量仍相當(dāng)可觀。他們也仍在從俄羅斯購買很多東西，他說。
Moreover, Mr Kouzmin points out that the focus on increasing economic ties between the twocountries is primarily a political project built on grandiose deals, such as the 30-year gasexport contract signed between Gazprom and CNPC last year. “To a large extent it’s apolitically driven decision, he says. “Politics doesn’t get scared by all this stuff about GDP.
此外，柯茲敏指出，俄中加強經(jīng)貿(mào)往來主要是一項政治工程，其著眼點是一些宏大的交易，如俄羅斯天然氣工業(yè)股份公司(Gazprom)去年與中國石油天然氣集團公司(CNPC)簽署的30年天然氣出口合同。“在很大程度上，那是一個政治決策，他說。“政治不會被這些關(guān)于GDP的細枝末節(jié)嚇倒。
Even the grand political projects are not immune from the effects of China’s economic swoon,however.
然而，就連宏大的政治工程也無法免受中國經(jīng)濟低迷的影響。
In the energy sector, Gazprom has been hoping to sign another deal for exports to westernChina. A deal on the “western route is important for the state-controlled gas exportmonopoly as it would allow it to deliver gas from its existing west Siberian fields, whichproduce much less than their full capacity.
在能源領(lǐng)域，Gazprom一直希望簽署另一筆協(xié)議，向中國西部出口。“西線交易對于這家國有控股的天然氣出口壟斷企業(yè)十分重要，因為這將使其能夠從現(xiàn)有的西西伯利亞氣田輸送天然氣，那里目前的產(chǎn)量遠低于全部產(chǎn)能。
But negotiations are progressing slowly, according to people familiar with the talks.
但據(jù)知情人士透露，談判進展緩慢。
Jonathan Stern, chairman of gas research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, says thata sharp slowdown in Chinese gas demand in the past year has strengthened Beijing’s hand.
牛津能源研究所(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)天然氣研究負責(zé)人喬納森斯特恩(Jonathan Stern)表示，過去一年里中國天然氣需求大幅放緩，加強了中方的談判地位。
“The Chinese are really in the driving seat. Their economy is doing poorly; gas demand is waydown on what we thought it would be. They’re in a really strong position to negotiate with theRussians, he says.
“中國人確確實實坐在駕駛員座位。他們的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)不佳;天然氣需求遠低于我們預(yù)測的水平。他們在與俄方談判時處在真正的有利地位，他說。
There are some bright spots. The decline in the rouble since last December has stimulated anincrease in Russian exports of certain products, such as sunflower oil and beer, to China, saysEvgeny Gavrilenkov of Sberbank CIB.
也有一些亮點。俄羅斯聯(lián)邦儲蓄銀行(Sberbank CIB)葉夫根尼加夫里連科夫(Evgeny Gavrilenkov)表示，自去年12月以來盧布下跌，推動了俄羅斯某些產(chǎn)品的對華出口，如葵花子油和啤酒。
“Russian manufacturing companies have become competitive in principle on the Chinesemarket, he says. “Russian small and medium-sized business is quite adaptable. If there is ademand in China it will always be possible to find some niches on the Chinese market.
“俄羅斯制造企業(yè)原則上已在中國市場變得有競爭力，他說。“俄羅斯中小企業(yè)的適應(yīng)力較強。只要中國存在需求，總有可能在中國市場找到某些縫隙領(lǐng)域。
In comments carried by the news agency Ria Novosti, the Russian central bank said thedevaluation of the renminbi would have “no significant impact on the rouble. The bank arguedthat in the medium term it might even lead to a stronger rouble by helping to stimulate arecovery in the Chinese economy, and so in commodity prices.
據(jù)俄新社(Ria Novosti)報道，俄羅斯央行表示，人民幣貶值對盧布“沒有顯著影響。該行認為，中期而言此舉甚至可能導(dǎo)致盧布走高，因為它有助于刺激中國經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇，進而推高大宗商品價格。
Mr Gavrilenkov points out that it is the volatility of the rouble — which has nearly halved invalue against the dollar in the past 12 months — rather than the volatility of the renminbi thatis holding back Chinese investment in Russia. “This is not an environment where you can makelong-term decisions, he says. “This is what holds people back from moving to invest in Russia.
加夫里連科夫指出，妨礙中國對俄投資的不是人民幣的波動，而是盧布的波動;過去12個月期間盧布兌美元匯率近乎減半。“這不是一個你可以做長期決策的環(huán)境，他表示。“這才是阻止人們到俄羅斯投資的因素。
Russians shrug at the thought of a 3 per cent currency devaluation, such as the renminbiexperienced last week. After all, the rouble experiences similar swings almost daily.
人民幣上周走低3%。對于這種幅度的貶值，俄羅斯人只會聳聳肩。畢竟，盧布幾乎天天經(jīng)歷這樣的波動。
But as Russia puts ever greater weight on its ties with China as part of President VladimirPutin’s strategy of “pivoting to Asia, the slowdown in the Chinese economy is not so easy toshrug off.
但是，隨著俄羅斯按照弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)總統(tǒng)“轉(zhuǎn)向亞洲的戰(zhàn)略，越來越注重其與中國的關(guān)系，中國經(jīng)濟放緩并不是靠聳聳肩就能輕松拋在腦后的。
Russia this month reported that its recession deepened in the second quarter, with theeconomy contracting 4.6 per cent year on year.
俄羅斯本月報告第二季度經(jīng)濟衰退加劇，經(jīng)濟同比收縮4.6%。
China is Russia’s single largest trade partner, accounting for $30.6bn of imports and exportsin the first half of the year. That figure represents a 28.7 per cent fall from a year earlier,according to Russian customs data. However, Russia’s trade with China has declined less thanwith other countries, meaning that China has increased its share of Russia’s trade from 10.8per cent to 11.4 per cent.
中國是俄羅斯最大的貿(mào)易伙伴，上半年雙邊進出口總額達到306億美元。根據(jù)俄羅斯海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，這個數(shù)字代表著28.7%的同比跌幅。然而，俄羅斯對華貿(mào)易的降幅小于該國對其他國家貿(mào)易的降幅，這意味著中國在俄羅斯對外貿(mào)易中的占比從10.8%提高至11.4%。
Oleg Kouzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, says the sheer size of China’seconomy means the country will continue to represent an opportunity for Russia, even in anenvironment of slower growth. “In physical amounts, the volumes of their exports is stillconsiderable. They’re still buying a lot from Russia, he says.
莫斯科晉新資本(Renaissance Capital)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家奧列格柯茲敏(Oleg Kouzmin)表示，中國經(jīng)濟的龐大規(guī)模意味著，其對俄羅斯而言將繼續(xù)代表著一個機遇，即便在經(jīng)濟增長放緩的環(huán)境也是如此。“就絕對數(shù)量而言，他們的出口量仍相當(dāng)可觀。他們也仍在從俄羅斯購買很多東西，他說。
Moreover, Mr Kouzmin points out that the focus on increasing economic ties between the twocountries is primarily a political project built on grandiose deals, such as the 30-year gasexport contract signed between Gazprom and CNPC last year. “To a large extent it’s apolitically driven decision, he says. “Politics doesn’t get scared by all this stuff about GDP.
此外，柯茲敏指出，俄中加強經(jīng)貿(mào)往來主要是一項政治工程，其著眼點是一些宏大的交易，如俄羅斯天然氣工業(yè)股份公司(Gazprom)去年與中國石油天然氣集團公司(CNPC)簽署的30年天然氣出口合同。“在很大程度上，那是一個政治決策，他說。“政治不會被這些關(guān)于GDP的細枝末節(jié)嚇倒。
Even the grand political projects are not immune from the effects of China’s economic swoon,however.
然而，就連宏大的政治工程也無法免受中國經(jīng)濟低迷的影響。
In the energy sector, Gazprom has been hoping to sign another deal for exports to westernChina. A deal on the “western route is important for the state-controlled gas exportmonopoly as it would allow it to deliver gas from its existing west Siberian fields, whichproduce much less than their full capacity.
在能源領(lǐng)域，Gazprom一直希望簽署另一筆協(xié)議，向中國西部出口。“西線交易對于這家國有控股的天然氣出口壟斷企業(yè)十分重要，因為這將使其能夠從現(xiàn)有的西西伯利亞氣田輸送天然氣，那里目前的產(chǎn)量遠低于全部產(chǎn)能。
But negotiations are progressing slowly, according to people familiar with the talks.
但據(jù)知情人士透露，談判進展緩慢。
Jonathan Stern, chairman of gas research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, says thata sharp slowdown in Chinese gas demand in the past year has strengthened Beijing’s hand.
牛津能源研究所(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)天然氣研究負責(zé)人喬納森斯特恩(Jonathan Stern)表示，過去一年里中國天然氣需求大幅放緩，加強了中方的談判地位。
“The Chinese are really in the driving seat. Their economy is doing poorly; gas demand is waydown on what we thought it would be. They’re in a really strong position to negotiate with theRussians, he says.
“中國人確確實實坐在駕駛員座位。他們的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)不佳;天然氣需求遠低于我們預(yù)測的水平。他們在與俄方談判時處在真正的有利地位，他說。
There are some bright spots. The decline in the rouble since last December has stimulated anincrease in Russian exports of certain products, such as sunflower oil and beer, to China, saysEvgeny Gavrilenkov of Sberbank CIB.
也有一些亮點。俄羅斯聯(lián)邦儲蓄銀行(Sberbank CIB)葉夫根尼加夫里連科夫(Evgeny Gavrilenkov)表示，自去年12月以來盧布下跌，推動了俄羅斯某些產(chǎn)品的對華出口，如葵花子油和啤酒。
“Russian manufacturing companies have become competitive in principle on the Chinesemarket, he says. “Russian small and medium-sized business is quite adaptable. If there is ademand in China it will always be possible to find some niches on the Chinese market.
“俄羅斯制造企業(yè)原則上已在中國市場變得有競爭力，他說。“俄羅斯中小企業(yè)的適應(yīng)力較強。只要中國存在需求，總有可能在中國市場找到某些縫隙領(lǐng)域。
In comments carried by the news agency Ria Novosti, the Russian central bank said thedevaluation of the renminbi would have “no significant impact on the rouble. The bank arguedthat in the medium term it might even lead to a stronger rouble by helping to stimulate arecovery in the Chinese economy, and so in commodity prices.
據(jù)俄新社(Ria Novosti)報道，俄羅斯央行表示，人民幣貶值對盧布“沒有顯著影響。該行認為，中期而言此舉甚至可能導(dǎo)致盧布走高，因為它有助于刺激中國經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇，進而推高大宗商品價格。
Mr Gavrilenkov points out that it is the volatility of the rouble — which has nearly halved invalue against the dollar in the past 12 months — rather than the volatility of the renminbi thatis holding back Chinese investment in Russia. “This is not an environment where you can makelong-term decisions, he says. “This is what holds people back from moving to invest in Russia.
加夫里連科夫指出，妨礙中國對俄投資的不是人民幣的波動，而是盧布的波動;過去12個月期間盧布兌美元匯率近乎減半。“這不是一個你可以做長期決策的環(huán)境，他表示。“這才是阻止人們到俄羅斯投資的因素。
